← All scenarios·Monetary tightening

Bank Rate at 5%

The Bank of England hikes to fight inflation. Who actually feels it first?

CalibratedNumbers calibrated against a published source.

The verdict

Banks pay 45p of every £1 of pressure. Households gain 24p.

45pof every £1 of pressure lands on Banks

Where the pressure moves

The £1 pressure trail

Live — computed from the ledger, not a graphic
Scenario pressure diagram: Banks pay 45p of every £1 of pressure. Households gain 24p.£1£1£1£1£1Banks45pHouseholds+24pGovernment+15pBusinesses+13pPensions & insurers3pCentral Bank
Green trails = cash / relief received. Red trails = pressure absorbed. Every £1 has to land somewhere.Every £1 of pressure · rebased to 100p

How to read this — three tiers

LedgerReal cash, deposits or reserves move between actors. Conservation-checked.
ValuationExisting assets are marked up or down. No cash changes hands, but balance sheets move.
IndicatorA directional pressure gauge only. Not a cash movement and not a balance-sheet entry.

Who gains

  • Households+24p
  • Government+15p
  • Businesses+13p

Who pays

  • Banks45p
  • Pensions & insurers3p

What it means for one person

Dan and Sarah

young family, two-year fix ending

Their remortgage costs an extra £4,100 a year. Meanwhile, the same rate rise pays cash-rich savers and rewards banks' net-interest margins.

The context

Raising Bank Rate is the headline lever. It moves mortgage payments, savings returns, and government debt-service costs — but not equally, and not for the same people.

Explore further

Change a lever. See how the trail moves.

Sources

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