← All scenarios·September 2022

The Truss mini-budget

What happens when big unfunded tax cuts collide with a nervous gilt market?

Narrative stress scenario — not a causal replayCombines several pressures to illustrate a credibility shock. Not a claim about what exactly happened.

The verdict

Pensions & insurers pay 20p of every £1 of pressure. Government gain 42p.

20pof every £1 of pressure lands on Pensions & insurers

Where the pressure moves

The £1 pressure trail

Live — computed from the ledger, not a graphic

Green trails = cash / relief received. Red trails = pressure absorbed. Every £1 has to land somewhere.Every £1 of pressure · rebased to 100p

How to read this — three tiers

Ledger— Real cash, deposits or reserves move between actors. Conservation-checked.

Valuation— Existing assets are marked up or down. No cash changes hands, but balance sheets move.

Indicator— A directional pressure gauge only. Not a cash movement and not a balance-sheet entry.

Who gains

Government+42p
Households+5p
Businesses+3p

Who pays

Pensions & insurers−20p
Banks−18p
Overseas−12p

What it means for one person

Rachel

first-time buyer in Manchester, tracker mortgage on £180k

In the scenario her monthly payment moves sharply — not because policy targeted her, but because rate and issuance pressure travel through the same pipes she borrows from.

The context

This scenario combines rate pressure, issuance pressure and duration-sensitive gilt-market stress to illustrate why credibility shocks can transmit across balance sheets. It is not a causal replay of September 2022 — it is a narrative stress scenario built from the engine's ledger primitives.

Explore further

Change a lever. See how the trail moves.

Open in Pressure Lab →Try another scenario

Sources

More scenarios

Bank Rate at 5%£400 energy support payment Global energy prices double Emergency QE Selling the gilts back