Global energy prices double
A war overseas doubles the wholesale gas price. Where does the cost land?
Stylised external shockA stylised shock used to trace where imported pressure lands.The verdict
Overseas pay 50p of every £1 of pressure. Households gain 25p.
50pof every £1 of pressure lands on Overseas
Where the pressure moves
The £1 pressure trail
Green trails = cash / relief received. Red trails = pressure absorbed. Every £1 has to land somewhere.Every £1 of pressure · rebased to 100p
How to read this — three tiers
Ledger— Real cash, deposits or reserves move between actors. Conservation-checked.
Valuation— Existing assets are marked up or down. No cash changes hands, but balance sheets move.
Indicator— A directional pressure gauge only. Not a cash movement and not a balance-sheet entry.
Who gains
- Households+25p
- Businesses+25p
Who pays
- Overseas−50p
What it means for one person
Ahmed
runs a bakery in Bristol, gas-fired ovens
His energy bill more than doubles. He passes some through to bread prices, absorbs some as margin, and postpones a hiring plan.
The context
Energy shocks aren't policy — they're weather from outside. But the way they propagate through UK households, businesses, and the trade balance is a policy question.
Explore further
Change a lever. See how the trail moves.
Sources
More scenarios